Analyst Foresees PDM Redux in Post-Election Pakistan

Michael Kugelman, a South Asian affairs specialist at Washington’s Wilson Centre, has forecasted that a multi-party coalition (PDM Redux) is poised to govern Pakistan following the recent elections, similar to the arrangement after the ousting of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

In a thread on X (formerly Twitter), Kugelman opined that while the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) secured a mandate to govern, the next ruling coalition is expected to resemble the previous one, led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), alongside smaller parties.

Kugelman Termed the next coalition as PDM Redux.

Kugelman’s analysis coincided with reports of meetings between PML-N leaders and counterparts from PPP and Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), indicating a trend toward cooperation for political stability.

While acknowledging PTI’s resilience, Kugelman suggested that the party is likely to transition to the opposition, facing challenges in retaining independent candidates and securing coalition partners.

Despite PTI’s claims of forming governments in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and the Centre, Kugelman highlighted the party’s struggle to navigate alleged electoral rigging and the resultant need for coalition-building efforts, potentially involving legal recourse.

Regarding PTI’s discomfort with coalition partners such as PPP, Kugelman hinted at the possibility of PTI resigning itself to opposition status, anticipating a weak and factionalized government that may not endure.