Lancet Study Estimates Gaza War Death Toll over 186,000

A study published in The Lancet estimates that the death toll from Israel’s recent war on Gaza could exceed 186,000, representing nearly 8% of Gaza’s pre-war population of 2.3 million.

Gaza’s Health Ministry reports over 38,000 deaths since the conflict began in October, but the study warns the actual toll is likely higher due to extensive damage to health facilities and infrastructure.

The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees has faced significant funding cuts, worsening the crisis. UN data indicates over 10,000 bodies remain buried under rubble, with 35% of Gaza’s buildings destroyed.

The Lancet study notes that in recent conflicts, indirect deaths can be 3 to 15 times higher than direct deaths. Using a conservative estimate of 4 indirect deaths for each direct death, the study suggests the total death toll could plausibly reach 186,000 or more.

The study also refutes claims of data fabrication by Gaza’s Health Ministry, citing assessments from Israeli intelligence, the UN, and the WHO.