Hungary’s New PM Vows to End Russian Energy Dependency Amid Painful Transition

Kyiv: In the hours before Peter Magyar defeated Hungary’s longtime leader Viktor Orbán in Sunday’s landmark election, Magyar’s supporters filled the streets of Budapest chanting “Russians out!”

The mandate was clear for the incoming prime minister, who had described Orbán as a “puppet of the Kremlin” in his campaign speeches and long pledged to reduce Russia’s influence in Hungary.

The question now is whether Magyar will make good on that promise. As he attempts to pull Hungary out of Russia’s sphere of influence, he faces a central roadblock: Magyar will have to find ways to wean his country off Russia’s cheap energy products, which have, during many years of close ties, been a lifeline for Hungary’s ailing economy.

Experts say there are alternatives to Russian energy — but they warn that the new prime minister and his constituents will have to accept financial trade-offs to make the transition. During his 16 years in power, Orbán deepened Hungary’s reliance on Russian oil, gas and nuclear power. Hungary gets the majority of its crude oil via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline, and most of its natural gas through contracts with Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom.

Hungary’s nuclear power plants rely heavily on Russia’s state-owned energy company Rosatom, which has been building reactors at the Hungarian Paks Nuclear Power Plant since 2014. Some degree of reliance was difficult to avoid. Hungary is a landlocked country with limited direct access to global energy markets, making pipeline infrastructure central to its supplies.

But there are alternatives. Technically, Hungary could do without Russian oil and gas. Hungary’s domestic oil consumption, Vakulenko said, could be covered by the Adria pipeline, which transports crude from the Adriatic Sea to refineries in Croatia, Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia. Vakulenko noted that Hungary could also rely more on the continental European energy grid to fulfil its gas needs, albeit at higher costs.

Throughout his campaign, Magyar signaled that he is serious about turning to these alternative sources of energy. Anita Orbán, the woman expected to serve as his foreign minister (no relation to Viktor Orbán), has identified reducing consumption of Russian energy as a key priority for the new government.

The transition will be expensive. Vakulenko noted that oil imported via the Adria pipeline would carry an international market price much higher than the discounted rates Hungary has been paying for Russian crude. Hungary continues to rely heavily on Russian fuel to power its nuclear power plant, too.

Quitting a Russian natural gas habit will also be complicated for Hungary. The European Union, of which Hungary is a member, has pledged to eliminate Russian natural gas imports by 2027, but even Magyar admitted during his campaign that it would likely be infeasible for his country by that deadline. He is targeting a 2035 cutoff instead.

He might bargain about a deadline,” Varadi said. “The thrust of Magar’s policy will be clear, but he will be quite cash-strapped, so I expect them to bargain hard with the EU for more structural funds as a quid pro quo.”

In his first press conference since the April 12 elections, Magyar was clear-eyed about these challenges. No one can change geography. Russia and Hungary are here to stay. The government will procure crude oil and gas in the cheapest and safest way possible,” he said.

Still, experts remain cautiously optimistic that a gradual realignment may soon be underway. None of these points is a complete killer,” Vakulenko said. “But this is a decision of principles versus economics.”