‘Uncertain Monsoon Threatens Agriculture’: Experts Warn at PIDE Policy Dialogue

Experts Warn of Monsoon Uncertainty’s Economic Risks in Pakistan

An uncertain monsoon pattern could pose significant risks to Pakistan’s agricultural sector and economic stability, according to experts. The statement was made during a policy dialogue hosted by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE).

Dr Nasir Iqbal, Registrar at PIDE, highlighted that climate change is affecting productivity, inflation, employment, and growth in the country. Agriculture contributes over 23% to the national economy but remains highly exposed to climate variability.

Dr Inayat Ullah from PIDE’s Centre for Agriculture, Climate Change, and Rural Economy noted that rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are particularly impacting rain-fed and southern irrigated regions.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department’s Chief Meteorologist, Dr Faisal Saeed, indicated seasonal outlooks suggest above-normal temperatures and the possibility of below-average rainfall. However, extreme weather events remain a risk.

Dr Kamal Ahmed from NDMA emphasized that economic losses due to climate events are rising because of gaps in preparedness. Experts stressed the need for investment in resilience-building initiatives, including agricultural insurance.

Dr Mohsin Kiani noted that the livestock sector remains vulnerable to heat stress, disease, and flooding, suggesting the adoption of climate-smart feeding practices and expansion of insurance coverage. Participants agreed on the necessity for strengthening institutional coordination, promoting research, and ensuring effective policy implementation at all levels.