China’s Ambitions in Space: A 30-Year Leap Forward
In 2011, the United States blocked China from using the International Space Station (ISS). Undeterred, China built its own orbital hub, the Tiangong space station. Since the first flight of a Chinese astronaut, Yang Liwei, in 2003, around 15 crewed missions have been conducted.
The Tiangong station welcomed its first occupants in 2021 and currently houses three taikonauts. It allows China to accumulate crucial experience in spacewalks, docking, maintenance, and the effects on the body of long-term space travel.
None of China’s crewed launches have resulted in fatalities, following a long-term roadmap rather than isolated projects. This effectiveness stems from strong political commitment at the highest level of the state, stable funding, and the integration of the entire industrial chain into the project.
China Aspires to Land on the Moon by 2030
The Chinese space agency (CNSA) aims to put astronauts on the Moon by 2030. China has already sent several robots to the Moon and returned lunar samples. However, a crewed mission requires different equipment currently being tested.
In 2026, a test flight of the new Mengzhou spacecraft is set to occur, replacing the aging Shenzhou. A new ultra-powerful rocket around 90-metres long – the Long March-10 – will also be developed for lunar missions. The Lanyue lander could make its maiden flight between 2028 and 2029.
China’s Lunar Base Plans
China hopes to build a basic version of a crewed scientific base, called the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), by 2035 near the Moon’s south pole where water in the form of ice is believed to be present. The base will be built with bricks made on-site from lunar soil using 3D printers.
The CNSA aims to carry out archaeological research into the origin of the Moon, achieve breakthroughs in strategic technologies, and exploit lunar resources. An expanded version of the base is planned for around 2040.
No “Moon Race” Against the US
China does not talk about a “Moon race” or competition with the United States. They view the Moon as the logical next step for its own sake, not as a rivalry. However, establishing a lunar base by China would be a real challenge to America’s ability to establish such a base.
For now, China lags behind the US in terms of crewed flights. NASA’s Dragon and Orion spacecraft remain superior compared to China’s Shenzhou. But once China realizes its manned lunar landing by 2030 with the new spaceship and lunar landing vehicle, it will catch up with the US in the human spaceflight field.
Mars Exploration Postponed
After 2040, the Chinese lunar base will be used to validate technology and capabilities for a manned mission to Mars. However, serious plans to Mars are expected only after the completion of the lunar landing and the initial lunar base.