El Niño Expected by May, Heightening Global Heat Risk

El Niño conditions are forecast to emerge as early as May, potentially causing above-normal temperatures globally, according to an update from the World Meteorological Organisation. The agency’s climate models now strongly indicate the return of El Niño during the May-July period, following a phase of neutral conditions earlier in the year.

This event could intensify over the coming months and may reach strong levels. El Niño is part of the ENSO cycle, which shifts between warmer (El Niño) and cooler (La Niña) phases every two to seven years. The phenomenon raises sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, disrupting trade winds and influencing global weather patterns.

Meteorologists say El Niño events can significantly affect rainfall and temperature worldwide, often linked to droughts, floods, heatwaves, and disruptions in agriculture. The most recent El Niño lasted from May 2023 to March 2024, contributing to 2024 being recorded as the hottest year on record.

The latest update predicts a rapid warming trend between May and July, with higher-than-normal temperatures likely across regions including southern North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and northern Africa. However, rainfall impacts remain uncertain in some areas due to mixed signals in current forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has also projected an increasing likelihood of El Niño developing over the coming months, with estimates above 60 percent through mid-year and a smaller chance of a stronger event later in the year.