Nearly 70 million Americans have already cast their ballots in a historic US election set to conclude on Tuesday, fueling intense debates over early voting trends as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris prepare for a final push.
With both candidates and their key allies in a final scramble across the nation, the race remains tight in national polls and key battleground states that will ultimately decide the presidency.
As Trump and Harris vie for the last undecided voters, early ballots have already poured in through various US voting systems, leaving both parties analyzing voting patterns for any advantage. Among Democrats, particular attention is on Pennsylvania, a pivotal swing state within the “rust belt” region, whose former industrial hubs are viewed as essential for a victory path.
Harris and her team are hoping for a large showing of women in the election as they have made the loss of reproductive rights central to their campaign after the supreme court overturned federal abortion rights.
In Pennsylvania, voters over 65 account for nearly half of the early ballots, with registered Democrats making up 58% of that group, compared to 35% for Republicans—a notable lead in a demographic typically favorable to Trump.
Georgia – another key sun belt battleground in the deep south – there are strong signs of a significant early Republican turnout. More than 700,000 people who voted already in 2024 did not vote at all in 2020, according to Georgia Votes, and that is seen as a sign that many of them might be Republicans as the campaign has focused on that demographic. At the same time, the top three counties for voter turnout rates in Georgia are rural areas won easily by Trump in 2020.
Meanwhile, both campaigns face an unpredictable factor in the Muslim vote. A recent Council on American-Islamic Relations poll showed that 42% of Muslim voters back Green Party nominee Jill Stein, with 41% favoring Harris and 10% supporting Trump. With this group potentially swaying close races in states like Michigan, Stein’s support could have an impact if contests remain razor-thin.
