India’s Basmati Exports to Drop as Pakistan Offers Competitive Prices

Industry officials predict a potential decline in India’s basmati rice exports for 2024, following a trajectory that nearly reached a record high last year, attributed to Pakistan’s competitive pricing amidst a resurgence in production.

Renowned as the leading exporters of the premium long-grain variety of rice globally, both India and Pakistan cater to markets like Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States.In 2023, India witnessed an 11.5% surge in basmati rice exports compared to the previous year, reaching 4.9 million metric tons, inching close to the record peak of 5 million tons achieved in 2020. This upswing was fueled by reduced supplies from Pakistan and stocking endeavors by importing nations, according to industry insiders.

The surge in basmati rice shipments contributed to India’s attainment of a record $5.4 billion in exports in 2023, marking a substantial increase of nearly 21% from the preceding year, driven by elevated prices, as indicated by government data.Vijay Setia, a prominent exporter from Haryana state, remarked, “Last year, buyers rushed to procure when Pakistan faced production challenges. However, this year, Pakistan’s competitive prices, buoyed by increased production, have shifted the dynamic.”

Chela Ram Kewlani, chairman of the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP), projected a potential surge in Pakistan’s total rice exports to 5 million tons in the 2023/24 financial year, up from the previous year’s 3.7 million tons.

The devaluation of the Pakistani rupee has bolstered the competitiveness of Pakistan’s exports, noted Akshay Gupta, head of bulk exports at KRBL Ltd (KRBL.NS).

Concurrently, a decline in export demand coupled with an estimated 10% rise in India’s basmati rice production has commenced a downward trend in basmati prices within India, Gupta further elaborated.

Despite a 36% reduction in purchases by Iran, India managed to offset the decline with increased shipments to Iraq, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, according to data compiled by India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

Although Indian exports faced a brief slowdown in September and October due to the imposition of a minimum export price (MEP) on basmati rice, they swiftly rebounded, according to a New Delhi-based exporter.