Middle East Conflict Escalates, WFP Forecasts 45M Facing Hunger Amid High Oil Prices

Middle East conflict escalating, pushing millions toward hunger

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that rising fuel and transport costs are driving up food prices as oil prices remain around $100 per barrel. This scenario was forecast in March when it was predicted that 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity by June if the situation persists.

Households in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Sri Lanka are among those most seriously affected due to higher fuel costs, food price spikes, income losses, and disrupted trade. In Somalia, 6.5 million people—roughly a third of the population—are expected to face severe hunger in 2026, while Afghanistan could see 17.4 million people affected.

The situation is projected to worsen with an additional 2.5 million Somalis and 2.3 million Afghans at risk if disruptions persist. Both countries heavily rely on imported energy and food.

The crisis has also exacerbated a deep funding shortfall for aid agencies, with the WFP expecting to serve 1.5 million fewer people globally in 2026. If the situation persists for six months, an extra 9 million fewer people will be served.

In Afghanistan, surging fuel prices have driven up aid transport costs by as much as fivefold, and delivery times have increased from 10 days to up to 75 days due to alternative corridors used by trucks. In Somalia, soaring jet fuel prices are leading to higher operational costs for the United Nations Humanitarian Air Service, which is the only means of safely accessing hard-to-reach areas.