Pakistan Faces Hotter Summer, Below-Normal Rainfall in Upcoming Months

Pakistan Meteorological Department Issues Seasonal Outlook for June

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued its seasonal outlook for June and the following two months, warning that most parts of the country are likely to experience below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures. This could increase the risk of heatwaves, water shortages, and pressure on the agricultural sector.

In May 2026, the country received an average of 22.4 millimetres of rainfall, about 10 percent below normal levels. The average national temperature during that month was recorded at 29.2 degrees Celsius, which is 0.8 degrees above the long-term average.

Punjab experienced 29.7 millimetres of rainfall in May, around 19 percent above normal. Sindh recorded only 0.3 millimetres of rainfall, a 91 percent deficit. Balochistan remained 71 percent below normal, while Gilgit-Baltistan received 33 percent more rainfall than average.

The monthly forecast for June indicates that rainfall across most regions will remain near normal or slightly below normal. The largest deficits are expected in northeastern Punjab, Kashmir, and adjoining areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, Gilgit-Baltistan and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are likely to receive slightly above-normal rainfall during the month.

The Meteorological Department said El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean have become active again and are expected to persist in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole remains in a neutral phase. These climate patterns could lead to uneven rainfall distribution across the country. Temperatures are also expected to remain above normal nationwide throughout June, with particularly high temperature anomalies in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, while southern Punjab, Sindh, and the plains of Balochistan face intense heat and increased risk of heatwaves.