UN Forecasts Strong El Nino to Raise Global Temperatures, Heighten Extreme Weather Risks

United Nations weather agency forecasts moderate to strong El Niño. This could raise global temperatures and increase risk of extreme weather.

El Niño is periodic warming in central and eastern Pacific Ocean, lasting nine to 12 months. World Meteorological Organisation predicts above-average world temperatures from June to August.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warns of potential strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall, increasing heatwaves risk on land and ocean.

Most recent El Niño in 2023-24 contributed to 2024 being hottest year on record. Shift in Equatorial Pacific with rising sea surface temperatures from late April to mid-May suggests developing El Niño conditions.

WMO observes unusually warm subsurface conditions across tropical Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 6 degrees Celsius above average, creating a reservoir of heat driving surface warming.

El Niño can disrupt regional climates, bringing increased rainfall to southern South America, southern US, parts of Horn of Africa and central Asia, while causing drought in Australia, central America, Indonesia, and sections of southern Asia. It also has warming effect on global climate and fuels hurricanes in central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres urges shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy, treating El Niño as urgent climate warning. While no evidence that climate change increases frequency or intensity of El Nino events, it can worsen associated impacts like extreme heatwaves and heavy rainfall.