United Airlines Ponders Merger with American Airlines with Trump’s Support, Faces Regulatory Hurdles

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby discussed potential merger with American Airlines during a February meeting with President Trump. The proposed combination would mark the largest consolidation move in over a decade, further tightening an already competitive domestic market dominated by four similarly sized carriers.

Including international flights, United and American were the world’s two largest airlines by available capacity in 2025, according to OAG data. The meeting took place on February 25, three days before the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran that led to soaring jet fuel prices and airline fare increases.

Kirby argued to administration officials that a combined airline would be a stronger competitor internationally, aligning with the Trump administration’s focus on reducing global trade deficits. However, industry experts noted slim chances for approval due to potential opposition from unions, rival airlines, lawmakers, airports, concerns about route overlap, and job losses.

Antitrust lawyer Seth Bloom said regulatory hurdles are likely, even under a relaxed enforcement stance by the Trump administration. The deal would give airlines more pricing power, affecting consumers’ pocketbooks.

United and American declined to comment on the potential merger, which was not public knowledge. American shares rose over 5% in after-hours trading following the report, while United’s shares were relatively unchanged.

The US airline industry is highly concentrated, with American, Delta Air Lines, United, and Southwest Airlines controlling most domestic traffic at roughly 17%. US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said consolidation could be beneficial but would face close scrutiny for its impact on consumers.

Ganesh Sitaraman, director of the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator, warned that a merger would reduce competition, leading to higher ticket prices, fees, and fewer options. American is under pressure to improve profitability and close the gap with Delta and United amid union criticism over lagging returns. The airline carries about $25 billion in long-term debt, leaving it less financially flexible during its turnaround efforts.

United has been more confident in high fuel costs, with Kirby stating that a prolonged cost shock could create opportunities for stronger airlines to gain market share as weaker rivals struggle.