Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, secured a parliamentary seat on Friday, marking a crucial step towards his goal of replacing Keir Starmer as Labour leader and potentially Britain’s prime minister.
Approximately 25% of Starmer’s lawmakers have called for the resignation of Prime Minister since their party suffered significant losses in local elections last month, the worst in over three decades.
Burnham has declared his intention to contest any leadership race and is seen as the frontrunner to succeed Starmer. However, some supporters are uncertain about how and when to challenge the prime minister.
Several ways could see Burnham dethrone Starmer:
Burnham will be sworn into parliament next week, allowing him to formally challenge Starmer, as only MPs can serve as prime minister.
Labour’s rules require challengers to gain backing from 20% of party lawmakers in Parliament, which currently amounts to 81 members including the challenger.
If Burnham decides to move quickly, he must announce his intent before parliament adjourns on July 16 for summer holidays.
Starmer has an automatic right to stand and has indicated he would do so. Once candidates gather support from local branches and unions, party members vote, a process that could take two to three months.
Burnham might delay any bid until after the summer to campaign for Labour candidate in an upcoming Greater Manchester mayor election expected at month-end.
Another politician, like Wes Streeting, who resigned as health minister in May, could also trigger a contest. If Starmer and Streeting stand against Burnham, polls suggest Burnham would win.
Alternatively, Burnham could benefit from an uncontested power transition. Many Labour politicians have urged Starmer to outline his departure plans rather than triggering a leadership election.
A direct contest between Burnham and Starmer could harm the party if both engage in personal attacks. If Starmer does not stand and Burnham secures enough backing from MPs, he would become prime minister. Some suggest Streeting might also accept a senior role in a Burnham government, such as finance minister, for not triggering a leadership contest.