US President Donald Trump is set to visit China on May 14-15. He will meet with leader Xi Jinping after postponing an earlier summit due to the Iran war. Beijing seeks small, concrete achievements from the meeting but remains pragmatic given Trump’s unpredictable nature.
China aims for a broad reset in ties but acknowledges this is unlikely. Analysts say Beijing wants Trump to follow through on his promise to engage and achieve at least some tangible outcomes during high-level discussions. Concrete results could include limited tariff reductions that justify a rollback of China’s own tariffs or export restrictions.
The Iran war will likely be discussed, though China is not eager to engage deeply in this area. The US has already raised pressure on China by targeting its economic ties with Tehran and threatening 50% tariffs if military assistance is provided.
China aims to avoid additional complications such as new US tariffs linked to trade with Iran. Beijing’s bargaining chips include rare earths, crucial for production of smartphones and electric cars. Trump has shown interest in these metals, which could be a key factor in negotiations.
Beijing has prepared by diversifying trade towards Southeast Asia and the Global South, strengthening regional ties, and sharpening its legal and regulatory toolbox. Despite recent measures to protect against instability, China remains confident it can absorb pressure better than Trump, who is under midterm election pressure.
A visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin is also possible in the first half of the year, reinforcing China’s solid support for Russia despite Trump’s meeting with Xi.