Scientists warn some familiar landscape plants may vanish by century’s end due to climate change. A study models future ranges of over 67,000 vascular plant species globally, revealing 7% to 16% could lose more than 90% of their range, placing them at high risk of extinction.
Examples include Catalina ironwood, bluish spike-moss dating back over 400 million years, and roughly one third of Eucalyptus species. The study, published in Science, found that as temperatures warm, many plants can shift northward or uphill to stay cool enough, but climate change is shrinking the combinations of conditions these plants need.
For plants, movement across generations via seeds or spores carried by wind, water, animals or gravity is key. However, even with unlimited dispersal, extinction rates remain high. This matters for conservation efforts as simply helping species move may not be enough if suitable habitat overall is reduced.
Projected impacts vary regionally. Cold-adapted Arctic plants face shrinking habitats, while dry regions like the western U.S. and Mediterranean-climate areas risk stronger droughts, lower soil moisture, and more frequent wildfires. In southern and eastern Australia, coastlines limit poleward shifts.
Meanwhile, local plant diversity could rise across about 28% of Earth’s land surface as species move into newly suitable areas. However, these shifts could create “novel communities” where plants not historically living together encounter each other for the first time.
Plants underpin most terrestrial ecosystems by storing carbon, stabilising soils, supporting wildlife and providing food, timber, medicines and materials. Changes in plant diversity can have cascading effects on nature and people, potentially reducing carbon dioxide absorption from the atmosphere and intensifying warming through a feedback loop. Protecting plant diversity is crucial for maintaining ecological systems that support human societies.