Iran’s Power Shift Amidst US-Israel War
Since its inception in 1979, the Islamic Republic has revolved around a supreme leader with final authority on all key matters of state. However, following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death and his son Mojtaba’s elevation, Iran now lacks a single clerical arbiter at the pinnacle of power.
Mojtaba Khamenei remains at the apex of the system but plays a largely symbolic role, legitimizing decisions made by his generals rather than issuing directives himself. Wartime pressure has concentrated power into a narrower, harder-line inner circle rooted in the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the Supreme Leader’s office and the IRGC.
Iranian officials and analysts say that military strategy and key political decisions are now dominated by the IRGC. The Iranians are slow to respond, taking up to 2-3 days to do so. Analysts say the obstacle to a deal is not internal infighting in Tehran but the gap between what Washington is prepared to offer and what Iran’s hardline Guards were willing to accept.
The diplomatic face of Iran at talks with the US has been Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, more recently joined by parliament speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf. On the ground, however, the central interlocutor has been IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi.
Mojtaba, severely injured in the opening Israeli and US strike, has not appeared publicly due to security constraints. There was no immediate response from the Iranian foreign ministry to a request for comment on the issues raised in this article.