North Korea’s Ninth Party Congress, set to commence in late February with an undisclosed date, represents a significant political milestone under the leadership of Kim Jong Un. As preparations continue for this once-every-five-year gathering, Kim has been meticulously showcasing his accomplishments through tours of military and economic facilities across the isolated state.
The primary goal of the Congress is to provide clarity on North Korea’s future strategic priorities following the recent five-year development push. This year’s event will offer deep insights into Kim Jong Un’s evolving domestic and foreign policy stance, particularly as he seeks to navigate an increasingly complex international landscape.
Senior fellow for the Stimson Centre’s Korea Program, Rachel Minyoung Lee, noted that this quinquennial multi-day event will be critical in understanding Kim’s strategic calculus over the next five years. She observed that after acknowledging previous economic plans as a failure and calling for greater investment in heavy industries while bolstering agriculture and light industry to increase consumer goods supply at last year’s Congress, Kim is likely to present new priorities.
Recent developments suggest that Kim Jong Un may be making moves to solidify his daughter’s position as the future successor. South Korean lawmakers have cited a National Intelligence Service briefing indicating that North Korea believes 16-year-old Kim Ju Ae, thought to be named, is already contributing to policy matters.
This Congress could introduce significant shifts in leadership structure, including potential revivals of historical titles or even the introduction of new ones. Analysts suggest this opportunity could bolster Kim’s assertion of nuclear weapons as a potent deterrent against any threat, drawing parallels to previous threats faced by Iraq and Libya that led to conflict.
Another critical aspect of the Congress will be North Korea’s presentation of its military might, with expectations of a major parade marking the event. The focus on advancing nuclear and conventional weapons capabilities indicates Kim’s firm determination not to be at risk of being marginalized or deposed like former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro was under US military action.
Pyongyang may emphasize deepened ties with Russia, framing their alliance as crucial for safeguarding against perceived threats from the United States. This strategy aligns with Pyongyang’s past actions and reflects its belief in the necessity of a robust nuclear arsenal to deter such adversarial interventions.
Experts speculate that the Congress could also herald foreign policy shifts towards Washington and Seoul, given Kim’s persistent stance on South Korea as a “hostile nation.” The US raid on Venezuela underscores North Korea’s heightened concerns about military intervention. Experts debate whether this incident might embolden or dampen diplomatic efforts.
Tae Yong-ho from the Korea Institute for Military Affairs predicts that if Kim ultimately does appoint Ju Ae to lead, it would extend the family dynasty to a fourth generation. Meanwhile, Taehwa Hong of the Foreign Policy Research Institute anticipates Kim’s outreach strategy might involve engaging in limited contact with Washington to mitigate potential hostility.
Overall, this Congress marks North Korea’s commitment to bolstering its nuclear arsenal and deepening alliances while navigating complex international dynamics, all under the watchful eye of Kim Jong Un.