Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a significant drop in support in the north, where Hezbollah rocket fire has been most intense, according to a new poll by Agam Labs at Israel’s Hebrew University.
The May poll showed residents in the north abandoning Netanyahu’s Likud party more quickly than voters elsewhere and faulting him harshly over the war in Lebanon. With Iran demanding an end to Israel’s military campaign as part of any peace deal with the United States, Netanyahu is increasingly caught between domestic electoral considerations and diplomatic efforts from Washington.
The general election due by October could tip Netanyahu’s governing coalition out of power, risking his long-standing status as Israel’s arch political survivor. Many northern voters want a tougher military stance, unfettered by US pressure to end conflicts in the Middle East.
Residents of the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, where some half of voters backed Likud in the last election, consider ending the threat from Hezbollah and its near-daily rocket and drone attacks as their top issue. When sirens sound, they have only seconds to seek shelter, and voters told Reuters they want the war against Hezbollah pursued until the group is dismantled.
More than 7,500 people have been killed by Israeli military action in Lebanon since October 2023. Many northern voters, like Moshe Yifrah, a resident of Kiryat Shmona, want Israel to intensify its campaign but believe Netanyahu is yielding to US pressure from President Donald Trump to agree to a ceasefire.
Netanyahu’s electoral rivals immediately accused him of compromising on national security, adding to his political difficulties before the election. Former military chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot called for striking Hezbollah everywhere and not allowing the IDF to be tied down.
A new truce agreement was struck requiring Hezbollah to leave south Lebanon, but Netanyahu said soon after that military operations would continue for now. The Agam Labs poll showed only 23% of voters in the north saying they would back Likud in the next election, down from the 35% it gained in the last election in 2022.
Support for the wider right-wing bloc that makes up Netanyahu’s coalition has fallen further in the north, with around 70% of those surveyed disapproving of the handling of the war in Lebanon. The drop in support for Likud is three times greater in the north than elsewhere in Israel.