El Nino Expected to Return by Mid-2026
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) predicts that El Nino conditions will emerge in mid-2026, potentially being a strong event. This forecast comes from early indicators suggesting the warming climate pattern could intensify.
El Nino, characterized by increased surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, alters global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. It alternates with La Nina, its cooler counterpart, during neutral phases.
The last El Nino significantly contributed to 2023 being the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest ever recorded. Forecasts indicate a rapid rise in sea surface temperatures, signaling an early return of El Nino by May-July.
While climate change does not increase the frequency or intensity of El Nino events, it can amplify their impacts by increasing energy and moisture availability for extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.