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Pakistan Meteorological Department’s Seasonal Outlook for 2026 Monsoon
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country from July to September, with some northern regions expected to receive above-normal precipitation.
Kashmir, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Gilgit-Baltistan are likely to experience heavier-than-usual rainfall during the season.
The PMD said temperatures across the country are expected to remain above normal from July to September, with northern Punjab and western Gilgit-Baltistan likely to face comparatively more intense heat conditions.
Reduced rainfall in parts of Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan may worsen water scarcity issues, while elevated temperatures could intensify heat stress conditions nationwide. The department warned that the combination of intense monsoon spells and rising temperatures could increase the risk of urban flooding in cities across Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Officials also highlighted the possibility of glacial melting and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in northern regions, which may add to flood risks during the season. Experts have urged authorities to strengthen preparedness measures and improve early warning systems to mitigate potential climate-related impacts.