OPEC+ Agrees to Raise Output by 188k BPD, Excluding UAE

Seven OPEC+ countries agree to increase oil output by about 188,000 barrels per day in June. This decision comes despite the departure of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), according to sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions ahead of a Sunday policy meeting.

The increase is largely symbolic at this stage due to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has significantly impacted the group’s output more than the agreed targets. The UAE had previously announced it would leave from May 1st.

This decision indicates OPEC+ is moving forward with a business-as-usual approach, according to one source. The seven members are set to meet online on Sunday.

The ongoing conflict in Iran has severely affected exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, as well as the UAE. Before the conflict, these were the only countries within the group capable of increasing production.

Iran, also an OPEC member but not part of this week’s meeting, has seen its exports reduced due to a US blockade imposed in April. Crude oil output from all OPEC+ members averaged 35.06 million bpd in March, down 7.70 million bpd from February, according to OPEC. Iraq and Saudi Arabia made the largest cuts due to constrained exports.

Outside the Gulf region, Russia has also reduced its output following damage to infrastructure caused by Ukrainian drone attacks. The seven nations meeting on Sunday include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. With the UAE’s departure, OPEC+ now includes 21 members, but only these seven plus the UAE have typically participated in monthly production decisions.