Ukraine’s senior commander predicts turning point in six months
A senior Ukrainian military commander has forecast a “turning point” for the country within six to nine months. This prediction comes as Russian forces have made significant gains since their full-scale invasion in February 2022, but recent advances have slowed.
Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky, who commands one of Ukraine’s most respected fighting forces, believes Russia’s army is exhausted and unable to achieve major breakthroughs. If Ukrainian troops can maintain momentum over the next six months, they could gain initiative along the frontline and push Russia back from its last occupied territories in eastern Ukraine.
The issue of controlling Donetsk has been a stumbling block in U.S.-backed peace talks that have stalled. Russia wants control of the entire region, while Ukraine refuses to withdraw from areas Moscow’s troops cannot conquer.
Biletsky calls for defining strategic points where Ukrainian forces can improve their positions and then engage with Russians from a position of strength during peace talks. From a military standpoint, this is realistic, according to Biletsky.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed victory in Ukraine and believes the war is nearing an end. He told Reuters that it’s more likely for Russia to become exhausted before Ukrainian forces reach their breaking point.
U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War says Kyiv’s forces are now actively challenging the positional character of the war and could soon be capable of staging limited mechanized assaults.
Russian troops are bearing down on eastern Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt,” where fighting is intense inside the strategic city of Kostiantynivka. Capturing this area would position Russia to threaten the rest of the Donbas region.
Biletsky says his forces hold the flank around Sloviansk, forcing Russia to attack head-on and draining Russian forces due to heavy losses in field commanders. Moscow is losing battlefield communications due to restrictions on Starlink use by Elon Musk.
Despite recent successes, Biletsky says it’s too early to draw conclusions but that Ukraine could capitalize on its momentum by continuing mid-range attacks and advancing carefully. The commander also notes that Ukraine leads in unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and heavy bomber drones, while Russia wins the race for fiber-optic drones, which cannot be jammed.
Biletsky describes a potential blueprint for a modernized Ukrainian army, with units leading efforts to integrate new technology such as UGVs into battlefield strategy. The corps aims to deploy stealthy kamikaze drones and robots armed with machine guns or rocket launchers by 2027, replacing significant portions of infantrymen.